Increased US power generation from new renewables capacity -- mostly wind and solar -- will reduce generation from both coal-fired and natural gas-fired power plants in 2023 and 2024.
As a result of this expected increase in solar capacity, we forecast that the solar generation share will rise from 3% of U.S. generation last year to 5% in 2023 and 6% in 2024. Scheduled growth in wind power is slightly slower this year than in recent years, at about 12 GW of new planned capacity over the next two years. The forecast wind generation share in 2023 remains relatively similar to last year, averaging 11%, and then increases to 12% in 2024.
Much of the growth in solar capacity is in Texas and California, where natural gas has been the primary source of electricity. A growing share of generation from renewables, combined with our forecast of less overall electricity demand this year, displaces some natural gas generation, which will decline slightly, falling from 39% in 2022 to 38% this year and to 37% in 2024.
fuel costs make coal a less competitive source for electricity supply. Our forecast of coal generation falls again in 2024 to 17%.
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