After two years of fighting, Myanmar’s wretched civil war has reached a stalemate. For now, the extensive but mostly low-level conflict will endure
The country has a long history of insurgency. Ethnically based militias have been fighting its government, dominated by the majority Bamar group, for decades. But the resistance sparked by an army takeover in 2021 is on a different scale. Armed dissident groups have mushroomed across the country, including for the first time in the Bamar heartland. There are estimated to be over 300 of these People’s Defence Forces , with more than 65,000 fighters.
More than 30,000 people are estimated to have been killed and 2m displaced in two years of fighting between the army and these militias. The opposition is estimated to control up to half Myanmar’s territory, though most towns are in junta hands. Some think the conflict could escalate, due to thes has taken longer than expected, admits Ko Bate, ans are poorly co-ordinated and equipped; only 30% of their forces are thought to have guns.
Unable to move large convoys without being ambushed, the army is attacking from the air. “After an engagement with our troops they drop bombs indiscriminately,” claims U. Yarma, anintelligence chief. Nearly 200 people were killed on April 11th in an aerial attack on villagers in Sagaing, in central Myanmar. They had gathered for the opening of an
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