The current U.S. strategy to quickly declassify and publicly relay intelligence about Russian intentions and deployments may not prevent a war, but it has certainly complicated and raised the costs of one.
to deflect U.S. and British efforts to build a united campaign to counter Russia’s moves. These differences were, at least in part, exacerbated by varying levels of access to the intelligence on which U.S. assessments were based. To insure that the United States and its partners were “operating from the same set of facts,” according to a U.S. official, the Biden Administration moved to expedite the process by which U.S.
Eight years ago, Russia used covert forces, quickly dubbed “little green men,” to take over Crimea, and sent arms, intelligence, and, at times, active-duty Russian soldiers to support would-be separatists in the Donbass. “We could see the flow of Russian materiel into Donbass, for example, and would ask to declassify overhead imagery showing that,” Ben Rhodes, a former deputy national-security adviser to Obama, said. “It could take a matter of days just to get a few slides declassified.
Back in 2014, many of Russia’s military tactics—deniable operations blended with a coördinated propaganda campaign—appeared novel, or at least not as familiar and legible to U.S. officials as they would be in the years to come. U.S. officials acknowledge that they underestimated Russian capabilities in 2014 and were unprepared to respond in a concerted way.
For instance, the announcement, in early February, of a false-flag video that Russian operatives were allegedly preparing—which would have shown fake victims of a staged Ukrainian military operation—may have thwarted the creation of exactly such a product. And Biden’s mention, last week, of a possible date for a Russian invasion—February 16th—could have delayed Putin’s plans for that very day. Of course, we may never know exactly how these revelations affected events.
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