Insights from past warming: Enhanced temperature seasonality in China during the mid-Holocene

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Insights from past warming: Enhanced temperature seasonality in China during the mid-Holocene
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Against the background of global warming, the temperature seasonality has changed obviously at global and regional scales, which has exerted significant ecological and societal impacts. As a populous country highly sensitive to climate change, China experienced an overall decreasing trend of the amplitude of the annual temperature cycle during 1961–2007.

This national-scale average downward trend is likely to continue throughout the rest of the 21st century according to future projections, with a spatially robust decrease in most regions but increases at more local scales.

The Earth's orbital parameters underwent remarkable changes during the mid-Holocene, resulting in an increase of the seasonal distribution of insolation in the Northern Hemisphere by about 5%, and thus an overall enhanced seasonality of surface air temperature in the Northern Hemisphere. Hitherto, whether this was the case for all northern latitudes, especially for extratropical China, remains unclear.

Box plots of mid-Holocene minus preindustrial changes in winter, summer, and summer minus winter mean surface energy fluxes averaged over China . Red, pink, blue, and green boxes represent changes in net shortwave radiation , net longwave radiation , latent heat flux , and sensible heat flux , respectively.

The temperature seasonality change was closely related with the seasonal contrast variation of surface energy fluxes, mainly due to the mid-Holocene orbital forcing, with a dominant role played by net shortwave radiation, a minor contribution from net longwave radiation, and partial offset effects from sensible and latent heat fluxes.

"Notably, these insights from past warming period are contrary to the overall reduced amplitude of the seasonal temperature cycle over China under future global warming scenarios, which can mainly be attributed to the latent heat flux changes," explains the corresponding author of the study, Associate Prof. Tian.

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