Russian President Vladimir Putin has pared back his goals in the war in Ukraine to focus only on maintaining territory he has already seized, according to a new U.S. intelligence community assessment.
to focus only on maintaining territory he has already seized, according to a new U.S. intelligence community assessment.the North Atlantic Treaty Organization“We assess that Putin probably has scaled back his immediate ambitions to consolidate control of the occupied territory in eastern and southern Ukraine and ensuring that Ukraine will never become a NATO ally,” Haines said.
It’s not the first time that Putin has appeared to adjust his goals in Ukraine. When Russian troops tried and failed to seize Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, due to logistics and resupply issues last year, Russian forces shifted focus to eastern Ukraine. But the U.S. government’s assessment at the time was thatAnd yet, a negotiated settlement doesn’t appear to be an inevitability, Haines indicated.
Ukrainian armed forces are preparing to launch a counteroffensive sometime in the spring or summer to push Russia out of territory in eastern Ukraine, according to U.S. intelligence. Putin’s calculus may have changed in Ukraine in the near term. But he still likely harbors the belief that if he can wait for support for Ukraine to dry up in western countries, he may be able to resurge Russia’s offensive effort at some point in the future, according to the U.S. intelligence community’s assessment.
“Putin’s willingness to consider a negotiated pause may be based on his assessment that a pause would provide a respite for Russian forces as they could try to use that time to regain strength before resuming offensive operations at some point in the future, while buying time for what he hopes would be an erosion of western support for Ukraine,” Haines said.
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