The danger of all-out war in the Middle East is greater than ever. How did Israel and Iran get into this mess? And can they still find a way out?
The uranium enrichment plant in Natanz is located halfway between the cities of Isfahan and Kashan. The only things visible from the highway are warehouses and workshops. Most of the plant is buried in tunnels, well over 60 meters below the surface – difficult to destroy even with the most powerful American bunker-busting bombs, it is said.
An Israeli military strike against the Iranian nuclear program is the maximum variant of retaliation that is currently conceivable. It would be a bold move, feasible, if at all, only with the help of the United Sates – and with incalculable consequences for the rest of the world. Ever since the Hamas terror attack on Israel on October 7 and the war in Gaza, there has been an increased possibility of a broader war pitting Israel, the U.S. and their allies against Iran and its proxy forces in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
But the Iranian attack wasn't the first cross-border assault in this conflict. An Iranian consulate and residence building in Syria's capital city Damascus was destroyed in an April 1 airstrike, presumably by Israel. Sixteen people, including Iranian Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Zahedi, and other high-ranking officers and civilians were killed. Attacks on diplomatic missions are considered to be taboo by the international community, but for Iran, it was a public humiliation.
But how did Iran, the major Shiite power in the Middle East, become Israel's archenemy? Is there a way to slow down this extreme confrontation, which threatens to erupt into an open, and possibly one day nuclear, war? The question lingering over everything is this: How can Iran still be prevented from building a nuclear bomb?When asked whether Iran was already capable of building a bomb, the former head of the Iranian nuclear authority, Ali Akbar Salehi, recently replied in a television...
Hardliners on all sides always wanted to torpedo the Iran deal: in Israel, the forces around Benjamin Netanyahu, the conservatives in Iran – and right-wing Republicans in the U.S. The main argument against the deal was that it didn't include Iran's missile program or its aggressive proxy forces in the Middle East. Proponents of the deal believed that they would be able to negotiate these issues in the next steps. But in 2018, U.S.
Instead of compromise, this group is demanding toughness, born out of a messianic tradition. The Front of the Stability of the Islamic Revolution, theStep by step, these extremists are pushing the pragmatists out of the country’s circles of power. They are even enforcing the hated hijab requirement for women once again: On the day of the Iranian air attacks on Israel, the regime once again sent the morality police into the streets.
It was revolutionary leader Ruhollah Khomeini who declared Israel to be"Little Satan." The designation"Great Satan” was reserved for the U.S., which had provided the shah with military support for years. Kohmeini accused Israel of being an"enemy of Islam" and declared an annual Al-Quds Day, calling for the liberation of Jerusalem – though during the Iran-Iraq War , Khomeini had no compunctions about importing arms from Israel through secret channels.
But as sprawling as its economic empire is, the Pasadaran keeps its influence largely under wraps. Estimates as to the group’s contribution to Iran’s gross social product vary between one-third and two-thirds. General strikes of the kind that toppled the monarchy in 1978-79 become difficult when the regime also controls a majority of the economy.From the very beginning, Khomeini’s Islamic Republic was anything but a peaceful state.
The 2011 uprising in Syria as part of the Arab Spring provided the next opportunity. The Assad-family dictatorship in Damascus was Iran’s only Arab ally – and it couldn’t be allowed to fall. Indeed, Syria became the ultimate proving grounds for Soleimani’s creation. As of 2014, Iraqis began fighting at division strength in the region surrounding the Syrian capital of Aleppo, led by Hezbollah officers from Lebanon.
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