Iran has sent ballistic missile systems to allied proxy groups across the Middle East, and could indeed be used on the Ukrainian battlefield in coming weeks.
Although sophisticated systems such as the NASAMS have significantly boosted the interception rate against hostile loitering munitions and missiles, Ukrainian air space is too big to be defended solely with NASAMS and Patriot air defense systems. As such, the potential arrival of Iranian missiles could both undermine Kyiv’s morale and its ability to fight. Overall, it will pose an imminent risk to population centers and critical energy infrastructure.
Expecting a fast and decisive victory, the prolonged battle in Ukraine caught Russia by surprise. Amid a high-tempo conflict, Russia’s missile arsenal is depleting fast. In this regard, Iran’s missile and drone solutions provide the Kremlin with the perfect alternatives. In the past few months, the infamous Shahed-136 loitering munitions and Soviet-made cruise missiles proved to be more effective and affordable compared to advanced assets like the Kalibr.
However, ballistic missile defense is a different game, and a much harder one to crack. Combined with the country’s limited military resources, the destructive potential of Iranian ballistic missiles would be a significant disadvantage for Ukraine. Providing a successful defense against these missiles will be tricky. At present, the most effective system that can assist Ukraine in this regard is the Patriot—and though transfer has been confirmed, they have yet to be delivered.
In a prolonged war and possible renewed Russia offensive in the coming months, the West should refrain from considering Ukraine’s security through a solely defensive lens. Especially in the context of the impending Iranian ballistic missile threat, NATO should provide Kiev with counteroffensive capabilities that can match Iranian ballistic missiles. These would come with the transfer of offensive systems such as ATACMS.
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