Though COVID-19 case rates are still below levels this same time last year, trends indicate a fifth wave could hit the U.S. these holidays.
waves, the abrupt flatlining of a precipitous decline in cases is not a good omen when it lasts more than a week. In five of the past seven days, the weekly rolling average of new cases, which is reasonably resistant to daily fluctuations in reporting, has been higher than the day before.two-month cycle
typically foretells a spike. The unwelcome reversal comes just 16 days after cases dipped below the level we saw at this time last year, when the pandemic’s devastating third wave was already well on its way. Deaths, meanwhile—which typically lag about two weeks behind cases—remain slightly above their 2020 year-over-year counterparts.
The strongest hope that this could be a false alarm—and as always, I do hope I’m wrong—is that the current clip could be the last gasp of the fourth wave, not the introduction of the next one. Over the summer, cases blossomed across both the South and Upper Northwest, often leading to infections and mortalities that met or outstripped January’s catastrophic figures.
on Dec. 14, it promised a foreseeable end to what already felt like eternal torpor. That hope predated the rise of the Delta variant, but it was also predicated on two assumptions: that a supermajority of adults would get vaccinated as soon as possible, and that we could endure a shuttered existence just long enough for that to happen.
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