While hip-hop/R&B remains the industry’s best-performing genre, its growth is slowing and execs are concerned excitement is stagnating.
. Nine of the 10 most consumed songs in the United States were hip-hop/R&B songs, and as streaming became the dominant way to consume music, eight of the 10 most streamed artists were rappers. That report focused on 2017, but the period between 2015-2018 was a crescendo for the genre.
Those artists are carrying even more weight because of rap’s second problem; a number of would-be superstars died young. The late Pop Smoke, Juice WRLD and XXXTENTACION were three of the most important rappers of the past few years, not only because they moved units but because they were stylistic innovators.
Meanwhile, some of rap’s most promising upstarts have seen their fortunes turn quickly. DaBaby’s 2020 album,moved 124,000 album-equivalent units in its first week; after a couple of underperforming projects rehashing the same formula, 2022’smoved a mere 17,000 in its first week. Megan Thee Stallion won the Grammy for best new artist, but heralbum did lower first-week numbers than her debut and it hasn’t spawned a hit close to “Savage.” Roddy Ricch scored the last major pre-pandemic No.
“What I’m seeing is, people stick around for the piece of the song that they like,” explains Peniche. “They don’t want to hear the rest of whatever song TikTok put in their mind. You don’t even know if you’re going to like the full song or even the artist. You fall in love with the snippet — but after that, what happens?”
Cherry also points out how TikTok has also helped keep older music, like J. Cole’s “No Role Modelz,” consistently successful. “The reality of the market is now, you’re not just competing with other new music, you’re competing with the best music period from past or present,” adds Vaughn. “In the meantime, you’re gonna have a lot of first week sales in the 10-30,000 range. Until something changes, that’s just probably the new reality of the business.
The pandemic also upset the release schedule and forced concert cancellations. Cherry recalled a moment in 2021 when he asked two party promoters what was ringing off in the clubs. They struggled to come up with an answer besides Drake’s “Way 2 Sexy.” “What point in hip-hop history have we had a shortage of club bangers?” asked Cherry. “Never.”
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