Nicola Sturgeon set a referendum date without knowing if she has the power to make it happen.
Nicola Sturgeon has written to Boris Johnson for consent for a Scottish independence referendum on 19 October 2023.without UK Government approval.Nicola Sturgeon, who has earned a reputation for caution, has decided to take some big political and legal risks in her pursuit of independence.
However, it is possible to argue that holding the vote would not directly alter that constitutional arrangement, and therefore Holyrood should be legally capable of consulting the public.The Supreme Court will rule on whether a vote can be held without UK Government approvaldetailed examination of these legal arguments hereIf they win, then a referendum can legally go ahead unless at that point the UK government decides to legislate to prevent it. That would be a big call for them.
Her next step would be to campaign in the UK general election on the single issue of independence, in an effort to turn it into a defacto referendum.The SNP would obviously seek to win a majority of the Scottish seats at Westminster, which they have done at the last three elections. It is not clear whether the next UK government, which will only be decided at that election, would be prepared to accept such an outcome.If the SNP failed to get more than 50% that would - presumably - be game over for Nicola Sturgeon. Time for a new party leader and a new plan.
It is Nicola Sturgeon's plan C. Her revised plan B being to test Holyrood's powers to hold a referendum without UK consent in the courts.
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