Climate policy models are valuable for exploring concepts and ideas, but they have come to serve as a huge distraction when it comes to the development of actual policies that have a chance to accelerate rates of decarbonization in the real world.
. However, the pace of progress, particularly on mitigation, has been frustratingly slow.
There are two big issues with the concept of “baseline scenarios.” The first is obvious: there is no such thing as a world without climate policy, now or in the future. The reality is that governments, businesses and civil society are expending enormous effort to address climate change. Consequently, baseline scenarios don’t actually exist anywhere other than in models.
The real world does not make this differentiation easy, or even possible. Politicians are apt to characterize background rates of decarbonization as climate policy. Further, an acceleration of decarbonization rates -- such as occurred in the United States over the past decade due to increasing reliance on natural gas -- may be unrelated to climate policies. We havehow efforts to distinguish background from accelerated decarbonization can serve to hide the magnitude of the mitigation challenge.
A second issue with the use of reference scenarios is their role in the malleability of estimates of the costs and benefits of mitigation. One feature of climate policy discussion has been an effort to quantify how much aggressive mitigation might cost and how much a lack of aggressive mitigation will damage society and the environment.
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