Nobody at the Federal Reserve has asked for my opinion, but here it is: Once again, it is time to pause on rate hikes. I know that central bankers are terrified that inflation will rear its ugly he…
I know that central bankers are terrified that inflation will rear its ugly head again — and admittedly, the July CPI report could show an increase in the annual inflation rate from June’s 3 percent.
In July, there was a 187,000-gain in payrolls and the previous two months were revised lower by a total of 49,000 jobs. That puts average monthly job creation for 2023 at 258,000, down from nearly 400,000 per month in 2022 and more than a half a million jobs per month in 2021. Importantly, the June and July results were the slowest months of job creation in the past two and half years.
When workers are more productive, then labor cost growth moderates, and according to Ashworth, “the recent slowdown in unit labor cost leaves it very close to its pre-pandemic average and it is consistent with a big drop back in core services inflation, which would be consistent with overall core inflation dropping to 2% on a sustained basis.”
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