'Unemployment risk constitutes one of the most significant sources of uncertainty facing workers in the United States,' says the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
shows just how much leverage employers hold over current and potential employees, even in a purportedly tight labor market where the official jobless rate has hovered at or below 4% for a year.Fatih Karahan, Brendan Moore and Laura Pilossoph
find that"unemployment risk constitutes one of the most significant sources of uncertainty facing workers in the United States." Around 20% of Americans see their job loss risk over the coming year as between 10% and 20%, while a substantial one tenth view the chances of losing their job as greater than 50%."Some individuals [believe] with certainty that they will lose their job over the course of the next year," the authors write in a blogpost.
That policymakers have chosen not to keep raising interest rates in the face of weakening economic data is, at the margins, a hopeful sign that officials are finally paying some attention to the indicator that really matters: wage growth for those Americans who need it most. Beyond the moral imperative, bottom-heavy wage gains stimulate the economy by channeling the benefits of the expansion back into consumer spending. The central bank has undershot its inflation target, a sign that the economy has long been operating well below its productive potential, forA Fed that bets on a trickle-up economy is much more likely to meet its elusive mandates of price stability and maximum employment.
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