Even as the United States asserts more control over its own border, the picture remains dangerously chaotic farther south, in Mexico and its southern neighbours
has been working on a semi-permanent replacement for Title 42, which is due to expire this year. The proposed rules would establish a presumption that people who enter the United States illegally are ineligible for asylum, although in some circumstances this could be contested.
Yet looked at from a Mexican perspective, the picture is more chaotic. Mr López Obrador, a populist nationalist who has often bristled at the policies of his northern neighbour, is being co-operative for now. But Mexico still has huge problems controlling migration within its own boundaries and on its southern frontier. Mexico’s own border is porous, particularly with Guatemala, where jungles are hard to patrol.
If Mexico is not capable of controlling migration, it follows that a key issue is whether the Biden administration’s proposed regime will change the incentives of migrants so that the flow from the south into Mexico drops. The evidence so far is mixed. Despite the fall in illegal crossings into the United States in January, large numbers of people are still on the move.
Many others are coming from countries which are not eligible for Mr Biden’s scheme. According to data collected by the authorities in Panama, the nationalities of those traversing the Darién Gap are manifold. The second-highest number of migrants in January were Ecuadoreans, at 6,352. Even 913 Chinese people and 562 Indians tried their luck that month.border.
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