Joe Biden’s tone has differed from Donald Trump’s; American officials argue there are some policy differences, too. But he has overpromised and underdelivered
Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskSuch protestations may be a tacit admission that the trip, planned for next month, is unlikely to do much to reduce the oil price. Such realism has been in short supply since Mr Biden took office. He at first promised a different Middle East policy from his predecessor’s. He would restore the nuclear deal with Iran, signed in 2015 but abandoned by Donald Trump in 2018. He would shun the Saudis.
Rather than return to the old deal, Mr Biden sought what Antony Blinken, his secretary of state, called a “longer and stronger” agreement. But negotiations in Vienna did not start until last April, just two months before a presidential election in Iran. The president it brought to power, Ebrahim Raisi, is a hardliner even by Iranian standards. Unsurprisingly, he is less amenable to a deal than his predecessor.
But Mr Biden seems to have reversed himself in the worst possible way. Despite his protestations, many in Washington see oil as the main point of his trip. Yet the Saudis are reluctant to break their so-called+ agreement with Russia and pump more. Some cartel members are already struggling to meet output quotas. The Saudis insist that even if they did open the oil taps, bottlenecks at refineries would still keep petrol prices high.
Saudi Arabia and Israel have compelling reasons, chiefly their shared hostility towards Iran, to pursue warmer ties. Barring drastic change in either country, Saudi recognition of Israel seems a question of when rather than if. But the Saudis are unlikely to make a deal on Mr Biden’s timetable. Instead they will probably drag the process out, hoping to pocket as many gains as possible before signing up.
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