Don’t look now, but interest rates are breaking out to new sixteen-year highs. The 10-year yield is just a breath away from 4.5%. Yes, jobless claims were shockingly good this morning, but the jump in yields started overnight, before we got that data. Among a zillion other things, it means mortgage rates will yet move higher. But wait a minute–didn’t…
Don't look now, but interest rates are breaking out to new sixteen-year highs. The 10-year yield is just
%. Yes, jobless claims were shockingly good this morning, but the jump in yields started overnight, before we got that data. Among a zillion other things, it means mortgage rates will yet move higher.on rate hikes at its meeting yesterday? Yes. They've left the overnight rate at current levels, around 5.3%. Still, they also signaled a lower chance of rates dropping anytime soon. Their new forecast showed only one or two ratenext year, down from three or four in the last one.
The simple, optimistic story to tell here would be that the economy has been more resilient than expected, and so the Fed wants to keep policy tighter for longer to make sure inflation doesn't accelerate again.about the outlook right now--with evidence mounting that GDP could hit a fourth-quarter"pothole," as Goldman is calling it.
Indeed, the stock market's behavior seems to confirm the unease. The S&P 500's sharp year-to-date rally began stalling out in August, and stocks are selling off again this morning on the upward move in rates. Having failed to break out to new highs this year, the market remains about 8% lower than its year-end 2021 all-time high close of nearly 4800.
So what's really going on? Greg Ip of The Wall Street Journal notes that the breakout in Treasury yields this year really picked up steam on something that used to go almost unnoticed in markets--the
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