When Chair Jerome Powell and other Federal Reserve officials gather this week for their latest decision on interest rates, they will do so on the cusp of achieving an elusive “soft landing” — the feat of curbing inflation without causing a deep recession
File - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks after a Federal Open Market Committee meeting, June 14, 2023, at the Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington. The Federal Reserve wraps up its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, July, 26, 2023.
Economists at Goldman Sachs, who have sketched a more optimistic outlook than most others, have downgraded the likelihood of recession to just 20%, from 35% earlier this year. Hiring has remained healthy, with employers having added 209,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate declining to 3.6%. That's near the lowest rate in a half-century and about where it was when the Fed began raising rates 16 months ago — a sign of economic resilience that almost no one had foreseen., down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 though still above the Fed's 2% target.
Waller expressed concern that the Fed might be “head-faked” by temporary slowdowns in inflation, only for prices to resurge again, which previously occurred in mid-2021 and the fall of 2020.
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