As much as Labour insist this is all a surprise - with some, though not total justification - Monday afternoon will tell us a lot we didn't know about Britain's future, with lots of clues to what's next in the fine detail and the nuance.
By now, you are probably aware that at 3.30pm the new chancellor will tell MPs of an approximately £20bn black hole in the public finances, necessitating immediate painful spending cuts today and paving the way for tax increases in an October budget. Rachel Reeves and her team will then challenge the Tories over who knew what and when about the shortfall, and hope this argument is ringing in voters' ears going into the summer.
The thinktank, like the Tories, will say much of this was evident, but Labour deliberately did not want to engage in a discussion about spending cuts or tax rises beyond the narrow set in the manifesto, so deliberately ignored things like the prison places crisis evident from weekly figures. Labour will argue in-year adjustments on this scale are very rare, and that they have to act now to reassure the markets because this is reckless.
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