Lockdowns that block normal services cost lives. The longer they last, the more lives lost
locked down the city of Wuhan on January 23rd, over a third of the world’s population has at one time or another been shut away at home. It is hard to think of any policy ever having been imposed so widely with such little preparation or debate. But then closing down society was not a thought-out response, so much as a desperate measure for a desperate time. It has slowed the pandemic, but at a terrible price.
The consequences will be far-reaching. Hunger permanently stunts children. Lockdowns that block normal services cost lives. The World Health Organisation has warned that covid-19 threatens vaccination programmes. If they stop in Africa, 140 children could die for each covid death averted. A three-month lockdown, followed by a ten-month interruption of tuberculosis treatment, could cause 1.4m deaths in 2020-25. It is the same for malaria and.
To limit the risk requires an epidemiological approach that focuses on the places and people most likely to spread the disease. An example is care homes, which in Canada have seen 80% of all the country’s deaths even though they house only 1% of the population. In Sweden refugees turn out to be high-risk, perhaps because several generations may be packed into a household. So are security guards, who are often elderly and are exposed to many people in their work .
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