Investors are going to get some clues from the twice-a-decade Communist Party congress slated to start on Oct.16, where Xi Jinping, China's top leader, is...
Investors have been battered by China’s economic slowdown, due in large part to a stubborn strain of COVID-19 that has rippled through the country this year which forced hundreds of millions of people into lockdowns, coupled with a debt-laden property sector, and a restrictive investment environment for foreign investors.
The congress is set to present a road map for the next five years, including clues on how to spur a recovery in Chinese economic activity, signs of a meaningful pivot away from the zero-COVID approach, and plans to stabilize the embattled property sector. “2023 could be a natural window for reflections on the COVID strategy,” Citi’s economists led by Yu wrote. “In the coming months, China will continue to prepare for a reopening while optimizing the implementation of ‘dynamic zero-COVID’ policy to minimize the economic costs.”
The MSCI China Index CNUA has typically generated about 2% returns in the month before the Party congress in the past, the Goldman Sachs strategists said in a note dated Sept.18, but the index posted a negative return of 14.6% in September and is down 10.9% so far in October, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
Citi’s Yu said the property market weakness has continued until now, while the efforts to deal with the problem are not fully coming through.
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