There's a lot at stake in July payrolls report
to help the nation's unemployed, markets await July's employment data, which is expected to show how much impact there was on the economy from rising infection rates and renewed virus-related shutdowns across the Sun Belt.according to Dow Jones. But the range of estimates is wide, and some economists with higher forecasts for job growth expect the negative impact of the spreading virus to possibly show up in August's figures instead.
As for the July payrolls, economists expect a number ranging from flat or even negative to gains of more than 3 million. "We would expect a larger market reaction in the event of weaker, or even negative, job growth in July, as it would call into question the so far strong rebound story," noted the Citi economists. But they also said there is more potential for the markets to have either a positive or negative reaction, compared to the last few months where the risks leaned to the upside.
Ian Lyngen, head of fixed income strategy at BMO, said one reason for a wide range of estimates is that usually reliable unemployment claims data and the monthly jobs reports have not been well correlated during the pandemic.
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