Does your team really have a chance as the division series round begins? Let's go area-by-area to find out.
After last year's attempt at using a combination of front-facing and underlying numbers to predict a World Series winner, we are back with a tweaked formula in hopes of better results.: home runs, productive contact, top-of-the-order stars, baserunning, big-3 starting pitching, high-strikeout bullpen, up-the-middle defense and manager. Gone this year are two subjective categories -- stars and managers -- as well as baserunning. Even though stolen bases have increased -- they're at 0.
Instead, we've added two purely numbers-driven categories: clutchness and two-strike aptitude on the offensive side, working counts on the pitchers' side. And in that vein, no longer are teams receiving points based on rankings against the other playoff squads. They'll be judged compared to the entirety of Major League Baseball and, based on those numbers, assigned points.At the end, all the points will be totaled and the team with the most points will be the favorite.
Two years removed from a 110-loss season, Baltimore punched its ticket to October -- and has much bigger things in its future., the Dodgers have three of the 11 lowest second-half bullpen ERAs in baseball. None are strikeout artists, but the Dodgers' bullpen jumped to 10.1 K/9 in September, a scary prospect for opponents.Houston finished the year with the highest K rate among relievers ... but a dip to 15th in September is worth keeping an eye on..
Of course, this is baseball, and this is October, which is to say what's been true for six months often does not hold for a seventh. There will be surprises and changes. Some will blossom, others wilt. And regardless of what the numbers might suggest, a new champion will emerge.
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