Chinese authorities are gingerly moving to ease the burden of the country’s COVID19 lockdowns, quarantines, and constant testing—but new models show why the government still wants to keep a lid on.
Surprised and stung by protests against draconian “zero-COVID” policies, Chinese authorities are gingerly moving to ease the burden of lockdowns, quarantines, and constant testing. But 3 years into the pandemic, China shows no sign of planning a major course change. Mathematical models suggest why: The country is still ill-prepared for living with SARS-CoV-2.
But models show why the Chinese government still wants to keep a lid on. A study based on vaccination rates in March, published inin May, found that lifting zero-COVID restrictions at that point could “generate a tsunami of Hong Kong provides a cautionary tale: A big Omicron outbreak early this year caused nearly 6000 deaths, 96% of them in people 60 or older. At the time, Hong Kong’s vaccination rates were even lower than the mainland’s. In the first 3 months of this year, the city had a COVID-19 death rate of 37.7 per million population, among the highest anywhere.
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