Investment bank Morgan Stanley has ramped up the risk of Britain and the European Union flopping onto World Trade Organization terms to 40% from 25%, after the UK signalled a willingness this week to walk away from Brexit talks.
FILE PHOTO: People take photos by the Morgan Stanley building in Times Square in New York City, New York U.S., February 20, 2020. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
“The risks are skewed to a harder outcome... bumping up the probability of our bear case of a WTO-style outcome to 40%,” they said, adding a delay in implementing any deal was also likely. In the context of a near 20% slump in the British economy due to the pandemic, the hit from a WTO Brexit would look modest at between 1.1% and 2% of GDP over the four-quarter period following the UK’s exit.
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