A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
and oversight for midsize banks similar in size to Silicon Valley Bank, which collapsed suddenly last week. Strengthened rules on banks in the $100 billion to $250 billion range could ape those for larger more systemic banks and involve stringent capital and liquidity requirements or beefed up annual "stress tests".
Even though reports abounded of depositor flight from the smaller weaker banks to the larger financial firms, stock prices in the sector at large caught a breath. That continued in Asia on Wednesday, although Europe's bank stocks and wider bourses stayed in the red and U.S. futures were a touch lower. The VIX equity volatility gaugeApart from fresh Credit Suisse angst, another reason for the persistent trepidation in Europe was signals from central bank sources that thewould push ahead with a hefty half-point interest rate rise at its policymaking meeting on Thursday.
If the ECB stays the course and the Fed follows suit next week, anxiety about further banking ructions may return - or at least see furtherU.S. Treasury market volatility is already at its highest since the aftermath of the last big banking crash in 2009, with the biggest drop since 1987 in 2-year Treasury yields on Monday followed by the biggest one-day jump in 14 years on Tuesday.
On Wednesday, 2-year yields settled about 4.3% - still 80 basis points lower than they were a week ago, but up half a point from Tuesday's trough. Futures markets now see an 80% chance of a quarter-point Fed hike next week to a 4.75-5.0% range, with a 'terminal rate' at 5% in May.industrial and retail updates for February showed the post-COVID lockdown recovery underway but at an underwhelming pace.
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