After controlling for factors including population size, GDP and distance from a country’s capital, researchers found that the presence of refugee settlements did not increase the probability of conflict
THOUSANDS OF CIVILIANS have fled Afghanistan this year to escape the Taliban. By the end of the year, the United Nations reckons, the exodus of refugees in the region could reach half a million. Many will seek sanctuary in neighbouring Pakistan, already home to an estimated 1.4m Afghan refugees. But the government in Islamabad has insisted that it cannot welcome any more, warning that a flood of new migrants would contribute to instability.
It helps if refugees are clustered together. The authors found that when refugee communities are geographically concentrated, rather than sprawling, conflicts were less likely to occur. This might be because states and humanitarian agencies are better able to support refugees when they are in one place and that the presence of refugees increases economic activity, both of which have spillover effects for those who live nearby.
Such evidence will be cold comfort to leaders in the region, many of whom blame refugees for a host of problems, from higher crime to unemployment rates. In Turkey, home to the largest refugee population in the world, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the main opposition party, recently insisted that “the real survival problem of our country is the flood of refugees”.
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