New Arizona poll shows Republican Senator Martha McSally in trouble against Mark Kelly

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New Arizona poll shows Republican Senator Martha McSally in trouble against Mark Kelly
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The GOP incumbent is now down by double digits against her Democratic challenger.

Polling from OH Predictive Insights also showed presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden with a commanding lead over President Donald Trump. The survey day showed Biden ahead of Trump by 7 points, with 50 percent of Arizona voters backing the Democratic challenger compared to 43 percent who back the incumbent president.

Democrats are hopeful that they can potentially flip Arizona, which has been viewed as a solidly red state, in the coming elections. Until 2018, the southwestern state had been represented by only Republicans in the Senate since 1995. Now it appears possible that both senators could be Democrats starting in 2021.

Republicans are pushing hard to maintain their control of the Senate, with most analysts currently expecting the House of Representatives to remain under Democratic control come November. But the race for the Senateat the present, with some projections suggesting it could be evenly split or potentially shift to Democratic control.

Currently, the Senate is composed of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents who caucus with their Democratic colleagues. In order to secure control of the upper chamber of Congress, Democrats would need to maintain all their current seats and gain four more. If the chamber is evenly split between the two parties, the vice president would cast the deciding ballot when the chamber is tied on a vote.

Recent polling has suggested that Democratic challengers also have an advantage in Senate races against GOP incumbents in Colorado, North Carolina and Maine. But the Republican contender in Alabama, who has not yet been selected by the party, appears to have an advantage over incumbent Democratic Senator Doug Jones.

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