China's abrupt lifting of stringent Covid-19 curbs could result in an explosion of cases and over a million deaths through 2023, according to new projections from US-based Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation
Residents line up outside a pharmacy to buy antigen testing kits for the coronavirus disease, in Nanjing, Jiangsu province, China on December 15, 2022.
China's national health authority has not reported any official Covid deaths since the lifting of Covid restrictions. The last official deaths were reported on December 3.China lifted some of the world's toughest Covid restrictions in December after unprecedented public protests and is now experiencing a spike in infections, with fears Covid could sweep across its 1.4 billion population during next month's Lunar New Year holiday.
The independent modeling group at the University of Washington in Seattle, which has been relied on by governments and companies throughout the pandemic, drew on provincial data and information from a recent Omicron outbreak in Hong Kong. Key concerns include China's large pool of susceptible individuals, the use of less effective vaccines and low vaccine coverage among those 80 and older, who are at greatest risk of severe disease.
Another study published July 2022 in Nature Medicine by researchers at the School of Public Health at Fudan University in Shanghai predicted an Omicron wave absent restrictions would result in 1.55 million deaths over a six month period, and peak demand for intensive care units of 15.6 times higher than existing capacity.
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