More House races will start with one party holding a significant advantage, as redistricting kills off competitive districts
More races for the U.S. House next year will start with one party holding a significant advantage because the process of redrawing congressional district lines is whittling down the number of politically competitive seats.
A Wall Street Journal analysis finds 12 politically competitive districts in the 22 states that have completed their House maps so far, down from 25 such districts currently. The Journal defined competitive districts as those in which the margin between President Biden and former Presidentin the 2020 election was within 5 percentage points. Districts were considered safe territory for a party if its presidential candidate won by 15 points or more. The analysis excluded states with a single congressional district and included Georgia, where the House map hasn’t formally become law but is expected to do so.
Many analysts say that compromise in Congress becomes harder when House districts are dominated by one party, as the winner of that party’s primary contest usually goes on to win the seat. This can push candidates to appeal to their party’s most ideologically driven supporters, rather than focusing on the larger and broader set of general-election voters.
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