If Democrats win in the 19th District and come within, say, single digits in the 23rd, it could be a strong sign that the Dobbs decision really has given Democrats a shot in the arm. FiveThirtyEight has more:
Partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or district’s lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean.
*Vote margin is the total vote share of all Democratic candidates combined minus the total vote share of all Republican candidates combined.Republicans
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