A renowned market bear says stock valuations remind him the Great Depression and tech bubble — and warns of an ominous 'Hindenburg' tipping point
Still, it's important to note that Hussman's intent isn't to make a "market call" or provide a prognostication on "what's going to happen." It's simply to demonstrate how this confluence of variables has behaved in prior market cycles. However, he does note that now wouldn't be a bad time for investors to "carefully consider their risk exposures" going forward.Right now, one of Hussman's favorite measures of valuations is flashing red.
After 10-plus years of a bull market, Hussman's proprietary model is projecting stock market returns that are just barely positive over the next 12 years. The chart below depicts the median price-revenue ratio of S&P 500 issues, divided into 10 deciles that range from the highest 10% to the lowest 10%. As one would imagine, each of these deciles has distinct attributes as valuations vary across industries/sectors. Each decile is compared against its own history.
This includes the S&P 500 trading higher from 10 weeks earlier, new highs less than twice new lows, a negative measure of stock advances vs. declines, and two days with new highs and lows greater than 2.5% of issues.Relative strength index confirming this notion with a reading above 65 in the last 10 trading sessions.New lows greater than 90% of new highs, where average new lows was previously below average new highs in the last 10 trading sessions.
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