Is a winter recession coming? That has been the notion from a series of data misses from the US this week, yet the all-important Nonfarm Payrolls repo
rt has the last word. Yet after substantial falls for the US Dollar, a minor upside surprise could spark a rally for the Greenback.Data leading to NFP shows rate hikes are biting
Arguably the most important release – at least the one most related to the Nonfarm Payrolls – came from ADP. America's largest payrolls provider reported an increase of only 177,000 jobs in August. While ADP revised its estimate for the previous month to the upside, the report seemed to point to a peak in July – and it may be all downhill from here.
An increase of fewer than 100,000 would raise recession alarms, sending safe-haven flows toward the US Dollar, while stocks would sink on fears of falling corporate profits. Gold would probably edge higher, taking advantage of falling yields. Another extreme scenario is of a substantial upside surprise, of over 200,000 jobs gained, or potentially surpassing 250,000. In such a case, a November hike would return to the table, with the Greenback gaining ground, shares shivering, and Gold melting.
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