NZDUSD rallies to its highest level since late August, above mid-0.6100s amid weaker USD – by hareshmenghani NZDUSD Fed Bonds RiskAppetite Currencies
The positive momentum is sponsored by the emergence of fresh selling around the, which hits a three-month low amid expectations for a less aggressive policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. Last week's softer US consumer inflation figures fueled speculations that the US central bank will slow the pace of its rate-hiking cycle. In fact, the markets are now pricing in over a 90% chance of a 50 bps rate hike at the next FOMC policy meeting in December.
Apart from this, a generally positive tone around the equity markets is exerting additional downward pressure on the safe-haven buck and further benefitting the risk-sensitive. Furthermore, sustained strength above the 0.6100 mark seems to have prompted some technical buying. This could also be cited as another factor contributing to the NZDUSD pair's strong follow-through momentum. That said, a slightly overbought RSI on the daily chart warrants caution for bulls.
Adding to this, fears that China could impose economically-disruptive COVID-19 lockdowns in some cities might prompt bulls to lighten their positions around the NZDUSD pair. Hence, any intraday corrective slide, back towards the 0.6100 mark, looks like a distinct possibility. Next on tap is the US macro data - the Empire State Manufacturing Index and Producer Price Index . This, along with speeches by Fed officials and the US bond yields, will drive the USD demand.
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