RBC Capital Markets' Helima Croft and her team have examined three possible scenarios for Venezuela and oil markets.
Venezuela's political and humanitarian crisis remains fluid with President Nicolas Maduro clinging to power amid protests led by opposition leader Juan Guaido.
What the current situation, and any potential outcomes, mean for Venezuela's primary economic asset — its oil sector — are now under scrutiny. "This scenario presents the most bearish outcome for prices, especially as many investors might assume that the recovery will be quick and uncomplicated. However, even if such a situation comes to pass we would caution that the road back will be arduous given the magnitude of the collapse."
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro meets with UN chief Ban Ki-moon at the United Nations headquarters in New York on July 28, 2015.Such punitive measures, along with rolling power cuts, would further compress the country's oil production, potentially sending it close to zero by year-end, the strategists noted.
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