So far, the fighting has affected oil prices only modestly, in contrast to past wars in the Middle East. That could change, depending on Iran's role.
Hamas’ surprise attack on Israeli civilians has set off a conflict that in past eras would have upended oil markets. This time, the effect on prices lasted just one day and registered as a blip in the longer-term models of most analysts. But as war rages in the world’s largest storehouse of oil reserves, there are risks that the calm won’t last. The wild card this time is Iran, Israel’s most powerful foe and a growing force in oil markets.
Newsletter Sign-up Israel’s response to Hamas’ surprise attack will likewise “change the Middle East,” warned Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The extent of the impact on oil prices is probably going to be modest, however. “Israel is a very marginal oil producer, and so recent developments will have little direct impact on oil supply,” wrote ING analyst Warren Patterson in a note.
The calculus for energy markets could still change, depending on Iran’s role in the Hamas attack. Iran has provided support to both Hamas and Hezbollah, though the extent of that support in the latest attack is still unclear. The Wall Street Journal reported that Hamas and Hezbollah officials say Iran was directly involved in planning the attack, a claim that Iran has denied. Israeli and U.S. State Department officials have said they don’t have evidence of Iran’s direct involvement.
“In that case, you’re well above $100 oil,” says Rebecca Babin, a senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth US.
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