Ahead of Russia’s most patriotic and somber holiday, Victory Day on Monday, there is no victory in the war against Ukraine but plenty of rumors that President Vladimir Putin will order a general mobilization of soldiers to secure one.
But Russia’s efforts to fuse Victory Day — its celebration of the Soviet victory over the Nazis in World War II — with a victory in its war against what Moscow calls “Nazis” in Ukraine fell flat with the failure to capture Kyiv. The occupation of the strategic Ukrainian port of Mariupol marks a rare Russian success, but the city’s bombed-out ruins make for a unpalatable backdrop for a parade.
“The strategic problem that Russia is facing today is that Russian society has not been prepared for protracted and costly war. It wanted a fast, decisive victory, and Putin can’t give it to Russians,” she said.If Putin were to declare all-out war and mobilize recruits, it would take at least six months to train them, Stanovaya said. That would also be a recognition that the “special military operation,” as Moscow calls the invasion, has been a failure, and “Putin can’t admit that,” she said.
Igor Girkin, a former Russian intelligence officer who led a separatist militia in the Donetsk area of eastern Ukraine in the 2014 uprising, has repeatedly warned that without a general mobilization, Russia faces a drawn-out war with high casualties and possible defeat.
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