'As more people move indoors in the coming winter months, there will likely be an uptick of all upper respiratory ailments, including COVID-19.'
, with results not always reported to county public health district, this data are certain to be unreliable and significantly undercounting the actual level of transmission around the country. This means that community levels provide a more discerning metric for assessing the status of COVID-19, since community transmission is effectively high everywhere.provides a picture of how the omicron variant continues to evolve and mutate.
During the week of Aug. 20, the BA.5 omicron subvariant represented around 86% of the confirmed infections. During the week of Nov. 12, it had dropped to under 30%. Competing subvariants with at least 1% of the infections detected include BQ.1.1, BQ.1, BA.4.6, BF.7, BA.5.2.6, BN.1 and BA.2.75. As the virus spreads and new variants and subvariants emerge, all battling to stay alive by finding people to infect, the most contagious of them gains a foothold in the population.
To illustrate this point, just two weeks ago, BA.4.6 appeared to be on track to become the next dominant omicron subvariant. However, the new subvariants BQ.1.1 and BQ.1 have surged over the past week to gain dominant positions. How these subvariants continue to spread in the population is much like a horse race, with no clear finish line to watch.
Making sense of all such data is challenging. Using it to forecast the trajectory of the virus is futile. What remains indisputable is that the
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