OPEC has reportedly agreed to deeper cuts in oil supplies
that oil producers pledge to abide by the 1.2 million bpd in cuts already in effect. In recent months Nigeria, Iraq, Russia and UAE have been “cheating” — producing in excess of quota — leaving the Saudis to bear most of the burden of cuts. reportedly
OPEC had little choice but to cut. Although existing restrictions have succeeded in tightening global inventories back within 5-year averages, every leading oil market prognosticator sees bouyant growth in non-OPEC output for 2020, led by shale drilling in the U.S. According to research consultancy Rystad, non-OPEC oil production will grow 2.26 million bpd in 2020, led by 1.35 million bpd from shale fracking. That would be the biggest non-OPEC supply growth since 1978.
According to consultancy Energy Aspects, OPEC is “hoping that relatively low prices and financial difficulties put a permanent dent in the ambitions of small and mid-sized shale producers and their financial backers.” Indeed, some analysts believe that forecasts of U.S. growth are too aggressive. IHS Markit predicts just 400,000 bpd of U.S. growth in 2020, while Oswald Clint of Bernstein Research notes that “we think revisions are imminent,” and has already slashed U.S.
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