Open-source intelligence is increasingly capable of questioning the narratives spread by states such as North Korea, China and Russia
s could be counted on the fingers of one hand. But although, by the final days of the campaign, President Dwight Eisenhower had strong evidence of this from thesites from space was so precious that it was worth risking the White House to keep it secret.
Geo4Nonpro was run by the James Martin Centre for Nonproliferation Studies , a part of the Middlebury Institute for International Studies at Monterey, California. Theis a leader in gathering and analysing open-source intelligence . It has pulled off some dramatic coups with satellite pictures, including on one occasion actually catching the launch of a North Korean missile in an image provided by Planet, a company in San Francisco..
Locating that spot gave the analysts a bearing. The 11 seconds between the flash in the sky and the sound of the explosion provided a distance. According to FlightRadar24, a website which displays the transponder signals of aircraft, the location thus calculated sat on the flight path ofThe next day Canada’s prime minister, Justin Trudeau, said that “intelligence from multiple sources” showed that the plane had been brought down by Iran's own air defences.
“Overhead” imagery, as it is known, is not magic; it needs interpretation, and that means knowing what you are looking for. A haunting lesson comes from a second-world-war reconnaissance mission. In 1944 a plane sent to photograph a chemicals plant in northern Poland which the allies planned to bomb turned its cameras on early and captured images of a large industrial complex nearby.
Ever better hardware for phones, a technological trend which can be relied on, means ever better hardware for satellites. Planet’s cubesats are now far more capable than those it launched in 2013. Other companies are pioneering new forms of satellite observation. Capella, Ice-Eye, Umbra and Xpress-are radar-satellite startups offering “synthetic aperture” technology which can take detailed pictures of surface features even through clouds, foliage and, sometimes, thin roofs.
When Mr Arkin’s findings were published in 1981 America accused him of having used classified information from his army days. To avoid criminal charges he had to prove the information was all in the public domain. In a new book, “Restricted Data”, Alex Wellerstein, a historian at the Stevens Institute of Technology, describes the proceedings: “A colonel shouted the names of bases, and Arkin would then display the tangled web of documents proving that each base contained nuclear weapons.
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