Opinion: The 2020 pundits may be emphatic, but they’re routinely wrong
Joe Biden, left, and Pete Buttigieg. By Jennifer Rubin Jennifer Rubin Opinion writer covering politics and policy, foreign and domestic Email Bio Follow Opinion writer April 9 at 12:00 PM The newspaper headlines and cable TV newscasts went into “scandal!” mode with complaints from women who came forth to point out that former vice president Joe Biden has about as much respect for personal space as a golden retriever puppy.
Also wrong was the notion that Beto O’Rourke would transform the race. Initial wall-to-wall coverage suggested that he was unparalleled in his ability to attract attention, this year’s Barack Obama. Well, he has not dented Sanders and remains locked in polling with Harris and, in some surveys, Sen. Elizabeth Warren . He’s doing well, but he’s hardly a race-changer or competitive with the top two candidates at this stage.
Taking a step back, there are only five candidates above 5 percent in the RealClearPolitics average, only seven above 2 percent. Candidates keep jumping in, Rep. Eric Swalwell the latest, but there are far more candidates who have not registered at all with voters than those who have. The more crowded the field, the harder any one of the lesser-known contenders will find it to break through.
Second, Biden remains a real question mark. It’s equally likely that he’ll cruise in early contests and wrap up the race in South Carolina as it is that he’ll self-destruct, lose an early primary or two and be done. I’m not sure we’ve ever seen a candidate simultaneously so commanding and so vulnerable.
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