Opinion: Trump is trying to build leverage with Central America. It just might work.
Drivers line up at the Cordova-Americas international bridge in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, on Sunday. By Henry Olsen Henry Olsen Columnist focusing on politics, populism, and American conservative thought Email Bio Follow Columnist April 1 at 4:04 PM President Trump’s threats to close the Mexican border and end aid to three Central American countries aren’t just coincidental.
In this case, the dish he wants to make is halting the stream of families coming to the United States as refugees from El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala. Canceling aid to the three nations’ governments gives him leverage, or so he thinks, to get them to do more to prevent the migrants from leaving in the first place. Stopping the aid might have the opposite effect if it worsens conditions.
Closing the border would instantly put immense pressure on Mexico’s economy, which benefits greatly from trade with the United States. Without daily shipments of agriculture that could spoil or car parts needed for making autos, plants and farms would start to suffer. U.S. consumers, food importers and auto firms would also suffer, but that could turn to Trump’s advantage, too. He would likely tell them to complain to Democrats who have not given him what he wants for border security.
The only thing surprising about Trump’s latest gambit is that official Washington is still surprised by Trump’s actions. He is, in fact, very predictable. Former Starwood hotel chief executive Frits van Paasschen has said what negotiating with Donald Trump was like, and it is very much like how he operates as president. He takes a “blunt stance” which “is intended to create a smokescreen and to throw you off balance.
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