Opinion | Jeff McCausland: President Trump's aversion to de-escalation treaties is hastening a superpower crisis. - NBCNewsTHINK
to demonstrate their commitments to Ukraine following Russian seizure of Ukrainian naval vessels near the Kerch Straits.as allied questions about Washington’s commitment to NATO
. It does guarantee that Russia can no longer conduct flights over U.S. territory, and Washington can still rely on its vast array of spy satellites to gather intelligence. But since U.S. allies remain committed to the agreement, Moscow will still be able to conduct flights over all NATO territory, including NATO territory that is being used by American forces.
In May 2018 then-Defense Secretary Jim Mattis testified before Congress that the U.S. should stay in the Open Skies Treaty as it is “in our nation’s best interest.” Meanwhile, smaller allies such as the Baltic Republics will lose substantial access to Open Skies intelligence about Russian activities near their borders. Many do not have an Open Skies aircraft and have been dependent on the U.S. or other NATO partners for joint flights. Furthermore, the American intelligence community is historically reluctant to fully share similar intelligence gained from U.S. satellites or other sources due to its classification and the associated technologies used.
Clearly, the emerging security environment is fraught with great uncertainty and potential instabilities. New offensive capabilities such as cyberweapons, hypersonic systems, counter-space weaponry, and the impact of artificial intelligence will force policymakers to modify existing agreements and seek new mechanisms. Washington must also deal with apparent Chinese interest in expanding its nuclear arsenal, increased nuclear weaponry in South Asia, and the lingering question of North Korea.
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