Opinion: Trump’s intervention in Venezuela has stalled — because Caracas knows he’s bluffing
By Jackson Diehl Jackson Diehl Deputy editorial page editor and columnist focusing on international affairs Email Bio Follow Deputy Editorial Page Editor March 31 at 5:25 PM Back in January, the Trump administration launched an aggressive effort to convince the Venezuelan military that if it did not topple President Nicolás Maduro, it would be destroyed by sanctions and, perhaps, a U.S. invasion.
The most salient factor, however, may be that, unlike Bernie Sanders and other self-styled resisters of U.S. imperialism, the Venezuelans know that Trump is bluffing. There is no credible U.S. military option in Venezuela, and very little chance that Trump would actually try one. Over the past several years, Maduro, an ignorant and charmless but tenacious ruler, has developed a survival strategy that is part rope-a-dope, part North Korea. He responds to popular demonstrations and strikes by dispatching gangs of paramilitary thugs and other special forces to beat or shoot protesters in poor neighborhoods. He arrests and tortures any military officer suspected of disloyalty.
Oil exports — the country’s only significant source of hard currency — are plummeting. According to Russ Dallen of Caracas Capital, they fell from 1.15 million barrels a day in January to 650,000 barrels a day in the first half of March — or 43 percent. If that continues, Venezuelan imports of food and medicine, already disastrously insufficient, will drop off a cliff.
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