Do vast improvements in accuracy of nuclear delivery systems make them more likely to be used?
Thanks to the international box-office success of Oppenheimer, the use and morality of nuclear weapons have become a popular discussion again. While we have lived in the nuclear era for the better part of a century, nuclear escalation and deterrence policy remains at the forefront of any military confrontation, including with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and NATO’s proxy war have raised the specter of a possible nuclear confrontation between the U.S. and Russia. Certainly, Putin has rattled the nuclear saber. He previously warned against Western interference with his assault on Ukraine and put Russian nuclear forces on alert. With his invasion of Ukraine having bogged down recently, he ratcheted up his threats to employ nuclear weapons. U.S.
U.S. nuclear weapons policy during the Cold War was based on the logic of an “escalation ladder.” The main theater of war in the confrontation between the U.S. and the Soviet Union was Europe. U.S.
With the end of the Cold War, the central importance of nuclear weapons to U.S. security policy declined precipitously. Of course, there were concerns about rogue actors such as North Korea and Iran. Indeed, one of the justifications for launching the Iraq War was to prevent Saddam Hussein from acquiring a nuclear capability.
According to the Arms Control Association, currently deployed U.S. and Russian warheads for strategic weapons are about equal in number: 1,458 warheads on 527 intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and bombers for Russia and 1,389 warheads on 665 intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and bombers for the U.S. Both sides have more warheads in storage. No other country possesses anything near these numbers.
Given this reality, would Russia consider using tactical nuclear weapons within Ukraine to break the current stalemate, risking escalation? On the one hand, the Russians have apparently developed very low-yield nuclear warheads that can be delivered by air or short-range ballistic missiles. Of most concern is the Iskander-M , which has already been employed extensively to deliver non-nuclear explosives.
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