A 16-point boom for Pete Buttigieg over the last two months suggests that he could be the candidate to beat in Iowa
over the weekend showed Buttigieg as the Democratic frontrunner in Iowa by a comfortable margin. Among those surveyed in the caucus state, 25% said Buttigieg is their first choice, leading his closest competitor by almost ten points.It was a stunning development, representing a 16-point boom for Buttigieg over the last two months and suggesting that he could be the candidate to beat in the Hawkeye State.
Buttigieg’s star has risen in tandem with increasing concern among the party establishment that Biden is carrying too much baggage to defeatand that Warren and Sanders are too far left. Buttigieg has appealed to the party’s moneyed centrists by taking a middle-of-the-road approach, relying less on a bold agenda and more on soaring rhetoric evoking’s calls for unity. “We will fight when we must fight,” he said during a barnstorming trip to Iowa earlier this month.
Such appeals have earned him large crowds, growing support, and the attention of big donors. But they’ve also rankled other Democrats, who’ve bristled at what they see as empty rhetoric.New York Timeswho was sitting in fifth in last weekend’s Iowa poll, has suggested that Buttigieg’s inexperience would lead voters to not take Democrats seriously.
That could weigh Buttigieg down in the early primary state of South Carolina. But a win in Iowa, the first contest of the Democratic primary, could deliver him significant momentum, forcing the political world to take him seriously, and potentiallythe campaigns of the other leading candidates. A Buttigieg victory, after all, would raise questions both about Biden’s electability—his primary selling point—and the electorate’s appetite for the progressive visions of Warren and Sanders.
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