Prof. Lichtman was one of the few forecasters who projected in 2016 Trump would become the 45th president while also correctly predicting Trump would be impeached as president.
The Republicans' loss of the House not only gives Trump a zero in that category, but it also leads to losing another key: dealing with scandal, which includes his impeachment,"plus plenty of other scandals," Lichtman states.against racial injustice following the deaths of George Floyd and Breonna Taylor as a factor to potentially help Biden."There has been enough social unrest on the streets with enough violence to threaten the social order," Lichtman said.
The professor also swung both long and short-term economic impacts towards Biden following economic collapse due to the coronavirus, explaining, "The pandemic has caused such negative GDP growth in 2020 that the key has turned false" to helping Trump.
The professor said Trump's candidacy made 2016 "the most difficult election to assess" since beginning his predictions. He also said “there are forces at play outside the keys” in 2020, including potential voter suppression and possible meddling from foreign countries, including Russia. Lichtman claims to have accurately predicted the winner of every presidential contest since Ronald Reagan's reelection in 1984. While he predicted former Vice President Al Gore would win the election in 2000, he stands by his projection, stating Gore won the popular vote while former President George W. Bush won the electoral college after the Supreme Court ruling.
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