Like the 60,000 miles of arteries and veins that course throughout the human body, ocean currents are the lifeblood of our planet—some flowing short distances, others circling the globe, but all playing a critical role in regulating climate.
There are several assumptions that are linked together in that study to arrive at the conclusion that an AMOC collapse is likely coming this century. First, they use a proxy for the AMOC strength based on sea-surface temperature changes in the subpolar North Atlantic, since our directly measured records of AMOC strength, available since 2004, are not nearly long enough to provide a basis for their analysis.
Yet, that is a critical assumption in the study, since they are basing their warning of an AMOC shutdown on the changes in the amount of variability of that SST proxy on those same time scales. To my knowledge, this analysis of short-term linkages between the cold patch and AMOC changes in the coupled models has not been done, nor was it considered by the authors. This, in my opinion, is a logical flaw of their model.
The AMOC is indeed weakening. What's causing it to weaken, and what would be the result of its collapse? Would we see the type of rapid catastrophic climate and weather conditions portrayed in the movie The Day after Tomorrow? In RAPID-MOCHA, we have observed a general decline of the AMOC over the nearly 20 years we have been making those measurements, but we are not certain yet how much of that is related to global warming versus natural variability on decadal time scales.
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