Will the arrival of Shehbaz Sharif as new prime minister help Pakistan fix ties with the US even as rival Imran Khan ups the ante through massive street protests? We ask South Asia expert Michael Kugelman
Rhetorically speaking, relations will be much more stable than they were during the last few months of the Imran Khan era. Keep in mind, early in Khan's tenure, the US-Pakistan ties experiences a strong period when ex-president Donald Trump asked Pakistan for help to get the Taliban to the negotiating table with the US. Imran Khan had a very successful visit to the US, to the White House.
One specific area that could receive a boost from Sharif coming to office would be the issue of future security cooperation, focused on Afghanistan. Imran Khan had of course had a very principled position that there will be no US bases on Pakistani soil. I think Shehbaz Sharif would certainly not use that type of rhetoric.
Also, November 2022 is when the term of army chief is up. I imagine Shehbaz Sharif's govt would want to be around at that point so that it is in a position to make that consequential decision as to what happens to General Qamar Javed Bajwa. Currently, elections are scheduled for August 2023 and even if they happen this November those will be early. So, the November date is key. Shehbaz Sharif would want to have the opportunity to make a call on the future of Bajwa.
I think here in Washington, certainly, there is a recognition of the fact that this cable and this conversation that allegedly happened between the outgoing Pakistani envoy and the US official did directly play a role in this crisis, and it is something Imran Khan is not going to let go off.