ICYMI: Questions about Russia’s vaunted army as Ukraine invasion enters Week 3
Putin spent well over a decade modernizing a conscript-based military that proved wanting in Chechnya during the 1990s, and Georgia in 2008. Its first test in a large-scale conflict since the end of the Cold War has raised questions about what that boom in spending achieved.
“There are at least some areas that give serious cause for a recalibration of assumptions about Russian capabilities,” said Boyd. “The operational and training issues are longer term. If they are having the same problems as 14 years ago, and they have not been able to make any real improvement, then there’s reason to suspect this is something they cannot do within the current political system.
Meanwhile, Russian ground forces continue to bombard other cities including Kyiv and Kharkiv, the ISW said in its situational report on the conflict. But the last few days have seen little movement beyond attempts to consolidate supply lines toward the capital, while troops from Crimea have moved north toward the city of Zaporizhzhia. The report also cited anecdotal evidence that Russia was struggling to raise reserves to resupply its war effort.
The pace of Russian air attacks picked up between days six and eight of the war, but so too the number of planes Ukraine’s military claimed to have shot down, according to Justin Bronk, an air power research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute in London. Since then there have been more and larger sorties from air fields in Belarus, but flown in the semi-dark hours of the morning and night, he added.
“If it does become clear they were unable to mount large asset, complex operations,” said Bronk, “then it would certainly make the Russian air force a lot less threatening than its relatively modern, high impact aircraft would suggest.” On Monday night, Ukraine’s state emergency service said 21 civilians, including two children, had been killed when a bomb hit an apartment block in Sumy, in northern Ukraine. It provided video footage showing bodies being dragged from the rubble. In was not possible to confirm the type of munitions used. Russia says it is only targeting military installations.
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