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Since the beginning of 2022, the media has regularly warned a recession is coming. As we suggested previously, if a recession DID occur, it would be the“While the ‘probabilities’ of a recession in 2023 seem far more significant, what bothers us with the recession/hard landing view is that everyone thinks the same.Most Anticipated Recession Evernumerous measures suggest a recession is forthcoming. However, that recession has yet to reveal itself.
As the economy shut down in March 2020 due to the pandemic, the Federal Reserve flooded the system with liquidity. Simultaneously, Congress passed a massive fiscal stimulus bill. That bill extended Unemployment Benefits by $600 weekly and sent $1200 checks directly to households. Then in December, Congress passed another $900 billion stimulus bill. That bill again extended unemployment benefits at a reduced amount of $300 per week, plus sending $600 checks to individuals again.
Not to be outdone, after Biden took office, the Administration passed the solely Democrat-supported $1.9 trillionIn that bill, $900 billion went to individuals through $400 extended unemployment benefits and $1400 checks directly to households. The remaining $1.1 trillion had little economic value as bailing out municipalities and funding pet projects didn’t boost consumption.
Unsurprisingly, the result of stopping supply by shuttering the economy and flooding households with money was, you guessed it, inflation.However, this surge in money supply also explains why a recession remains so elusive. While the annual rate of change in the money supply has plunged, which is why inflation is contracting, the money injected into the economy is still in circulation. We know this by examining the money supply as a percentage of the economy.
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